Hamas releases first Israeli hostages after Gaza ceasefire takes effect

Reflection on the latest developments

The BBC just reported that Hamas released the Israeli hostages that were taken on October 7th 2023. Anyone who followed the war should indeed be cautiously optimistic, because it might actually bring promising developments and the potential settlement of the conflict, which in my view is one of the easiest to solve if we only implement the agreed on International Treaties and consensus on the establishment of the Palestinian State alongside Israel.

It's interesting to note that this event occurred due to President elect Donald Trump's intervention and notably his envoy pressuring Benjamin Netanyahu. In contrast Joe Biden’s complacency only enabled the worst of Israeli society in the last two years, from the usage of atrocity propaganda that exploited the October 7th event, the triggering of the Hannibal Directive (that saw Israel kill its own citizens) and the incredible suffering brought on innocent Palestinians that notably include an estimated 58 000 deaths with thousands of innocent children, including infants being among the death toll).

Hamas bears responsibility for initiating the attack on October 7, 2023. However, there is substantial evidence suggesting that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was aware of the impending assault and permitted it to occur. Reports indicate that Israeli intelligence had received multiple warnings about Hamas's plans, yet the attack proceeded. Why? He was either negligent or it is an obvious case of strategic provocation.

Whatever one’s stance on this war, or how it began, it should be obvious that Israel not only overreacted, but clearly violated several international conventions and notably the Geneva Convention - that it has never signed.

The trouble with this war, however, is that any discussion about Israel cannot be separated from the historical memories of the Jewish people, who often feel deeply emotional when the country is discussed. With the exception of Israel, Jews are a minority almost everywhere in the world, and they do feel genuinely threatened whenever a rational discussion about Israeli government conduct takes place. This reaction is not always without reason, as there are clearly elements within some Middle Eastern states that would like to see Israel cease to exist as a nation. A lot of the talk of “settler colonialism” is , in my view, about fostering this kind of narrative.

However ,my criticism to Israelis is that many Jews in the aftermath of October 7th lost perspective on what was happening Worldwide . The nature of terrorism has been widely studied by scholars such as Robert Pape, and almost always have the same strategic logic.

Rather, what nearly all suicide terrorist attacks have in common is a specific secular and strategic goal: to compel modern democracies to withdraw military forces from territory that the terrorists consider to be their homeland

This is why throughout the Middle East, Israel is often referred to as “occupied Palestine”. By refusing to acknowledge the obvious, the Israelis continued digging a hole for themselves as they rallied around the Israeli government unconditionally. War propaganda does this to ordinary civilians, and once a country is mobilized, it becomes incredibly difficult for those supporting the war to consider alternative perspectives. Their minds shut down as they were drawn into the narrative.

This is when I believe that America, with its influence over Israel should have stood up. When the bombings began they should have insisted on adherence to international norms and conduct and not kept on backing it unconditionally. Unfortunately, the response was to further enable atrocities, and it was incredibly painful to watch how the US State Department spokespeople kept on lying to journalists about what was actually going on as they couldn’t even answer the most basic questions.

The consequence of all of this is that American credibility took a major hit to the extend that support for Israel is at an all time low among American democrats and young Republicans. In fact, not standing up to Israel probably was a reason why Harris lost to Trump, because whether we like it or not, demographic shifts have occurred in western countries. Thanks to the past two decades of wars in the Middle East, a large portion of the population in Europe and North America is now of Arab descent, and they have started asserting themselves in Geopolitical discourses. US support for Israel used to be an unconditional bipartisan issue, but unfortunately it has effectively regressed to the mean of world opinion - that has always been divided on the conflict.

Furthermore, countries in the Global South, which are democratic but whose historical narrative is shaped more by colonialism than by World War II, have started using their influence to confront Israel’s treatment of Palestinians at almost every international forum, such as the UN, the International Court of Justice, The International Criminal Court, and the BRICS nations. It is worth noting that the support for Palestine in Europe was the strongest in Ireland - the only Western European Country to have been a colony.

A notable example of the reality within the former colonial empires is Namibia, which accused Germany of aiding a Holocaust in Palestine. This was a significant statement, as Namibia, at the beginning of the last century, then a German colony, was the site of the Herero and Nama Holocaust at the hands of German colonial forces. The genocide, led by figures like Governor Lothar von Trotha and Eugen Fischer (the mentor of Josef Mengele), involved tactics such as concentration camps and human experiments, methods that would later be mirrored in the Nazi regime's policies. It would be hard to accuse Namibians of insensitivity, as they lost nearly 40% of their population during this period.

The Global South raising its voice is a significant development, and it will be incredibly difficult for the Israeli lobby to shape events in countries like South Africa, Brazil, or Indonesia, as they have done in Europe and North America.

The net result of it is that Israel is increasingly isolated, its policies are now referred to in the mainstream media and by several human rights organisations such as Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and Medicine Sans Frontiers, as Apartheid.

When I discussed these elements of international isolation with Jewish friends over the last two years, I am sad to say that I haven’t managed to convince a single one of them that the Israeli government should change its perspective and begin negotiations with Hamas. The response was always the same, it was a rephrasing of George Bush’s naivety after 9/11: 'Hamas is a terrorist organization, and we do not negotiate with terrorists.'

This is flawed on so many levels and flies in the face of empirical evidence. Notably, negotiations with terrorist organizations have worked in the past and in fact Israel has negotiated in numerous occasions with Hamas (including the fact that Hamas was propped up by Netanyahu and Mossad as a deliberate tactic to undermine the PLO). In the absence of negotiation, violence and war become the only viable language, and the longer negotiations are delayed, the more resentment Hamas will have to cultivate and exploit among Gaza’s population, of whom half are children.

Hamas is not Al-Qaeda; it is, in fact, the only movement to have won an election in Gaza. While we may not know the full extent of its support, the only democratic election in Palestine was shut down by Israel and the USA in 2006, after it became clear that Hamas was the representative party. Hamas is in fact more legitimate the than current government in the West Bank that is being propped up by US and Israeli government money.

Despite their leadership being targeted and killed, and the atrocities that they committed, Hamas probably still maintains wide support among Palestinians, because they speak to an obvious resentment, the lack of a feasible state. As Israeli officials now openly admit, their numbers have probably grown during the last 2 years - including in regions such as the West Bank that was not under their control.

Israel simply cannot wish them away or hope to bomb them into the stone age. Just as the British could not wish away the IRA, the French couldn’t wish away the Front de Libération Nationale of Algeria, or the National Party couldn’t wish away the African National Congress. Occupation and land is the root cause of the conflict and it will only end if Palestinian self determination becomes a political reality.

Since this whole war started, I had the view that it could have easily ended (if not been avoided entirely) if the USA flexed its muscle and put pressure on Netanyahu. Richard Nixon gave an interview after he left office where he said that it is within Israel's own interest if a US president could make a distinction between US and Israeli interest.

The solution to end the conflict is the same as when it began, put pressure on Israel at the UN Security Council to move towards a two state solution. Implement existing US laws such as the Leahy Laws and Symington Glen Amendments so that Israeli conduct can be compliant with International Law.

Israeli supporters do not want to admit it now, but strong arming both parties to move towards the two state solution would be in Israel’s and Palestine’s own interest.