The case against Mandates in South Africa
Vaccination is at best individual protection and therefore no mandate “to protect the public” can be justified as scientific.
Science or Dogma?
“Whenever a theory appears to you as the only possible one, take this as a sign that you have neither understood the theory nor the problem which it was intended to solve”. – Karl Popper
With an estimation that eighty percent of all South Africans have been infected with the coronavirus, how can mass vaccination and the introduction of vaccine passports be justified? By preaching the principles of a Free and Open Society, Western Cape Premier Alan Winde, the newest advocate of measures to limit freedom of movement, is acting as the antithesis of the principles that he and his political party claim to defend, by upholding the Neoplatonic lies that are not backed up by scientific data.
With all the talk of misinformation and conspiracy theories, it is my belief that the biggest liars are not the nutcases on the internet, but rather the public health officials who do not wish to engage the public in a sensible discourse and treat them as adults. By patronizing the public and stigmatizing anyone with legitimate criticism as an “antivaxxer” or “covid denier” they have painted themselves into corner after corner.
As I will argue in this piece, mandatory vaccination is not the logical outcome of a sensible vaccine policy given the dynamics of the coronavirus, the human immune system and the known unknown risks that are associated with the gene-based vaccines. It is unethical to justify them using Nobel Lies alone. Informed consent and not coercion is required if we want to uphold all the medical conventions that were established in the post-World War 2 Order following the atrocities of the Holocaust, the Japanese Experiments and the Thalidomide scandal of the 1950s.
I understand that by merely criticizing vaccines, many readers will interpret my actions as equivalent to drawing a cartoon of the Prophet Mohammed. But after a series of discussions with concerned scientists and doctors, I find it necessary to open this Pandora’s Box.
I start of my critique by assuming that ordinary people, doctors, and scientists who advocate on either side of the issue are acting in good faith and would like the pandemic to end as fast as possible. Those who I hold responsible for the deep hole that we find ourselves in, is the ignorance portrayed by the media, the politicians, the ideological fanatics at Davos and the pharmaceutical industry. They are the ones that are spreading fear while seeking to profit and/or push political agendas. I have already argued that the developing world needs more vaccines, and I still hold that position, but I do believe that there isn’t full transparency about the associated risks involved.
What is a vaccine?
The definition of a traditional vaccine is an intervention that mounts a comprehensive immune response so that viral load and transmissibility is minimized. This is not the case with the gene based vaccines, as transmissibility is equal in the vaccinated and unvaccinated. By treating them as traditional vaccines, we are misunderstanding their limitations and scope of application, while being ignorant of the strong evidence of natural immunity.
Vaccine Passports
The introduction of vaccine passports in South Africa will evoke horrible living memories from many people that suffered under Apartheid’s Dompas system, and I predict that it will trigger violent protests. Forced vaccination whether we agree with it or not comes down to a clash of fundamental values. Many of our fellow human beings rightfully see it as a violation of their bodily integrity and an assault on the responsibility that they have over their children. If the liberals want stand by the feminist principle of “My Body My Choice”, and if conservatives believe in the ideals of a “Family-based society” then surely those principles should also apply to vaccination? We and not the state have the right to decide what to put into our bodies and how to best protect our families, especially when the intervention at hand is not protecting against transmissibility.
The Approval Process
History will not judge the health regulators and in particular the FDA well as they rubber stamped the approval of the US Military ran “Operation Warp Speed” in less than a year – a period that normally takes 5-8 years to complete. The long term safety data of the Pfizer vaccine for example only comes out at the end of May 2023 implying that everyone who now takes the vaccine is part of the phase 3 human experiment. A freedom of information request by the European organization Doctors for Covid Ethics has revealed that the UK and Australian regulators never properly inspected the safety data and probably only relied on their American counterpart. The public should also be aware that with the FDA’s recent “approval” of the Pfizer vaccine, the editor of the British Medical Journal questioned if the data provided was sufficiently justified and during the last advisory committee meeting, the FDA was informed that the vaccine trials were deliberately designed to bypass the regulator.
No sensible person can believe that in such a short period of time no corners were cut, and that the vaccines are “completely safe”. The risks associated with the vaccines include several severe side effects and sadly deaths. With the data showing a trend of a small number of deaths following vaccination in over 90 countries around the world, it is more apparent that the rationale for full vaccination is less justifiable.
Zero Covid
With vaccination campaigns on the way, governments are placing a bet on mass vaccination to get their respective population towards herd immunity - the point at which viral replication between individuals is brought down to endemic levels. The Herd Immunity Threshold (1-1/R0 ) is derived from a statistical model that is based on the virus replication number (R0), the theoretical amount of people that each sick patient infects. Achieving herd Immunity will not result in zero covid, but rather bring the infection fatality rate down to manageable levels that are comparable with other respiratory viruses such as the flu.
With large animal reservoirs around it is also plausible that new variants of concern can emerge. One explanation why Europe’s second wave was bigger than the first is that the virus jumped from humans to minks and back again. Furthermore SARS Covid2 is an RNA virus that like influenza constantly mutates. With the variants of concern already in circulation which are not specific to the current vaccines, vaccine development can’t catch up to the mutations and strains, making the elimination of Covid19 through vaccination alone simply impossible.
Before the coronavirus pandemic started, the WHO defined herd immunity sensibly as achievable through a combination of vaccination and natural immunity, but due to pharmaceutical lobbying they updated their guidelines to include only vaccination.
The Novel Virus
Cross immunity is achieved by being exposed to the any of the other 5 coronaviruses that are circulating in the human population. It is postulated that the that children are not highly susceptible to Covid19, because every year they catch a common cold virus – a runny nose during the winter. By not opening schools and allowing children to play around we are delaying the robust system that nature developed for us. Before vaccines were developed against childhood diseases such as Measles and Rubella, parents instinctively knew about herd immunity and focused protection as they took their children to play with sick children to build immunity, while vulnerable populations such as pregnant women were shielded away.
Other forms of cross immunity have been observed in Middle Eastern and South-East Asian Populations that were respectively exposed to the MERS and SARS1 outbreaks. Their death rate is less than the world average. Covid is simply not novel as some of us are fortunate to be partially immune, by the good fortune that we survived infections from the other families of coronaviruses.
T Cells Immunity
Children and young adults with strong immune systems have robust T cells, a type of killer lymphocyte that act as an additional defense against any viral reinfection. T cells counts are measured by the familiar CD4 and CD8 count that is low among HIV/AIDS patients. If it weren’t for T cells Covid19’s infection fatality rate would have been much higher and easier to measure by simply testing for antibodies using the serological tests that many EU countries are now recognizing as a proof of vaccination.
Fortunately for us and unfortunately for the statisticians most people with a strong immune system and robust T cells in place will barely develop serological antibodies as their bodies simple shrug of the Covid19 infection. They would have had covid and test negative for the antibodies and yet still have a robust immunity. The role that T cells play in immunity is the reason that some epidemiologists believe that Covid19 is much less dangerous than the official figures claim to be. Essentially it has spread to large parts of the population without them even noticing anything except maybe a running and stuffy nose.
To make immunity even more complex, those that recover from Covid19 develop natural immunity that has the additional benefit of providing mucosal antibodies that reside inside our nose – unlike those of the vaccine. This further supports that convalesced unvaccinated individuals are less likely to spread the virus when compared to the un-convalesced vaccinated.
The danger of mass vaccination
Dr. Anthony Fauci initially strongly advocated that those previously infected with Covid19 should get vaccinated, but when pressed on the issue by CNN, he said that he doesn’t have a firm answer. Many vaccinologists are worried that overvaccination can lead to immune dependent enhancement. Conditions such as antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) that result from having too many antibodies, can potentially make the vulnerable populations susceptible to additional health risks. The warning about ADE initially came from two independent scientists, Noble Prize winner Luc Montagnier who discovered the HIV Virus as well as Geert van den Bosche, a former vaccinologist at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Later it was discovered that the FDA warned about ADE in their own documentation, after animals who were initially inoculated against Covid19 died in upon reinfection.
Vaccine Efficacy
According to initial publicity the vaccines were supposed to prevent transmission at high rates, 95% for the Pfizer–BioNTech, 94% for the Moderna–NIH, 91% for the Gamaleya, 67% for the J&J, and 67% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford vaccines, but these were Relative Risks Reductions (RRR) in the trial group.
These numbers were deceptive as a lancet study showed that when compared to the control group, the absolute risk reduction (ARR) looked significantly less impressive, 0.4% for the Pfizer–BioNTech, 1.3% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford, 1.2% for the Moderna–NIH, 1.2% for the J&J, and 0.93% for the Gamaleya vaccines. Using a Chi Square distribution, these risks reductions are statistically equivalent to zero, meaning that the vaccines cannot stop transmission. There is a mechanistic reason for this as the vaccines do not provide mucosal antibodies that are present in our nose.
During the Pfizer and Moderna trials the control groups were intentionally broken to probably hide the background risks, creating additional skepticism among the antivax community. Pfizer, AstraZeneca and the other companies involved have had histories of bribing regulators while imposing ridiculous contractual conditions on poor third world countries – such as holding their national assets hostage, while demanding that they aren’t held liable for any damage done by their products. The lack of efficacy of the vaccine with regards to transmission is seen in the epidemiological data as cases in Iceland and Israel have gone up despite high levels of vaccination. Iceland’s Chief Epidemiologist Þórólfur Guðnason has come out in public saying that “Vaccination Has Not Led to Herd Immunity”.
While there is data to support the claim that the vaccines provide protection against severe hospitalization for at least up to 6 months, it is a far shot from what they were initially sold on. The mere fact that the vaccines do not stop transmission implies that there is no benefit to the individual if people around them are not vaccinated. Vaccination is at best individual protection and therefore no mandate “to protect the public” can be justified as scientific.
Natural Immunity
A Japan study has shown that Natural Covid infection produces an optimal amount of antibodies and numerous studies are already showing the natural immunity is not only broader, but longer lasting then vaccine induced immunity. By claiming that only vaccination can get us to herd Immunity, the proponents of mass vaccinations are effectively lying about the role that natural immunity plays in achieving herd immunity, which further supports the claim that our public health officials are not looking out for the people but rather for something that is not even fathomable.
A misconception that is portrayed in the media is that if a recovered patient’s antibodies levels fall then natural immunity should also fade away, but this statement neglects the contribution of cellular immunity and in particular memory B cells. Upon reinfection with a coronavirus a patient’s body will remember the pathway that the virus took and recreate the necessary antibodies to fight off the new infection. Individuals that suffered from the Spanish Flu for example were found to have memory cells almost 90 years later and there is good reason to suspect that it will be the case with Covid19.
So, if we are to believe that 80% of all South Africans have been infected with Covid19, what rationale is left to justify the lockdowns, the mask mandates and mass vaccination if less than 20% of South Africa’s population is susceptible to Covid19. Even on the assumption that none of them have any prior immunity to the virus?